Ursula von der Leyen became president of the European Commission five years ago, with a narrow parliamentary majority. Now, as she seeks a second term, she faces challenges due to the rightward shift in the EU elections. The hard-right has increased its representation in the parliament, making it more difficult for von der Leyleine to secure the needed majority. She needs the support of the EU leaders as well as a majority of the newly elected parliament.
In the upcoming vote, analysts predict von der Leyen may lose a significant portion of her coalition, making it challenging to secure the majority she needs. She may need to reach out to other parties, including the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists and the Greens. However, forging new alliances comes with risks, as it may alienate existing supporters. Negotiations with various parties are ongoing, but no formal agreements have been reached.
Von der Leyen faces a balancing act as she navigates the complex web of EU politics. Seeking Green support may put her at odds with her recent retreat on climate legislation, while aligning with the hard-right could alienate liberal supporters. She will spend the next two weeks meeting with EU national leaders to garner their support. Her pitch will emphasize her ability to secure both leader and parliamentary backing, her handling of crises, and the need for continuity in leadership during challenging times.
Von der Leyen remains confident in her ability to secure a second term and has started negotiations with various groups. Some lawmakers who previously supported her may prove to be unreliable allies this time around. EPP officials are optimistic about her re-election, citing party unity and support among leaders. However, uncertainties remain, as not all party members have openly declared their support for von der Leyen. The upcoming vote will determine the future of her leadership and the EU’s direction moving forward.
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