The US intelligence has discovered discussions between the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Somali militant group al-Shabaab regarding a potential weapons agreement. This development, described as worrying by American officials, could escalate violence in an already unstable region. They are now investigating if Houthi weapons have been delivered to Somalia and if Iran, a supporter of the Houthis, is involved in the deal.
In recent weeks, the US has been warning countries in the region about the potential cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab. African nations have also raised concerns and sought more information on the matter. The situation has prompted serious conversations with countries on both sides of the Red Sea due to its implications for Somalia and the surrounding areas.
While the two groups, Houthis, and al-Shabaab, have different ideologies and have not previously had relations, their common hostility towards the United States could forge an alliance of convenience. The possibility of collaboration between them could worsen the situation in Somalia and the Red Sea, where the Houthis have targeted ships and US military assets.
If a deal materializes, it could provide the Houthis with much-needed finances as they face potential concerns from their primary supporter, Iran. As for al-Shabaab, they could gain access to more advanced weaponry such as drones, enhancing their capability to target US interests. This potential agreement would mark a significant development as it signifies a pragmatic approach from two conflicting organizations.
Any military cooperation between the Houthis and al-Shabaab could jeopardize the fragile ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia since 2022. It would also undermine efforts towards lasting peace in Yemen as per a proposed UN roadmap. The US continues to support the peace process in Yemen but acknowledges that trafficking between the two groups could complicate the situation.
The nature of weapons that the Houthis might provide to al-Shabaab remains unclear. While al-Shabaab currently has limited access to smaller arms, the Houthis possess more advanced weaponry including drones and ballistic missiles. The potential agreement is expected to offer al-Shabaab access to more sophisticated weapons capable of striking at US targets.
US troops in Somalia are vigilant against possible threats from both al-Shabaab and ISIS, carrying out counterterrorism missions when necessary. One key question for US intelligence officials is the involvement of Iran in the weapons arrangement. While there is no direct evidence, the US is monitoring the situation closely as part of broader Iranian efforts to confront the US and its allies through proxy groups.
Although there are doubts regarding Iran’s involvement, the possibility remains that the Houthi rebels are acting independently in this potential agreement. Iran typically manages potential escalations associated with conflicts, including the war in Gaza, to extract costs from the US and Israel without escalating into direct conflict. Amid these complex dynamics, the US continues to closely monitor the situation to prevent further destabilization in the region.
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