In June 2016, Britain voted to leave the European Union in a populist revolt, foreshadowing Donald Trump’s election win a few months later. Fast forward to June 2024, where far-right candidates who share Trump’s populist nationalism have just won sweeping gains in EU elections. The question now arises: is political lightning about to strike twice?
US voters and American presidential elections are different from those in the EU, and Trump’s win had more to do with Hillary Clinton’s campaign deficiencies than Brexit. However, President Joe Biden should take note. The latest campaign in Europe has successfully tested a message focusing on public anger over migration, high prices, and climate change. Trump is emphasizing these themes in battleground states crucial to the White House race.
The European elections also showed that incumbents are vulnerable in an age of inflation. Biden, along with other Western leaders like Macron, Scholz, Trudeau, and Sunak, are politically diminished. The rise of far-right parties in Europe echoes a troubling past and poses a threat to established leaders. However, ironically, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has emerged as one of the more secure leaders, despite Italy’s history of rapid leadership turnover.
Despite these trends, Biden may have a saving grace. The US election is not a typical fight between an outsider and an unpopular incumbent. Trump, with his controversial legacy and political baggage, is considered somewhat of an incumbent himself. Populist nationalism is not on the rise everywhere, as seen in successful campaigns against right-wing influences in the GOP and a potential return to power by the Labour Party in Britain. Poland’s rejection of populist rule further illustrates this point.
In France, Macron has dissolved Parliament and called for new elections in response to the surge of the far-right National Rally party led by Marine Le Pen. Le Pen has moderated some policies to broaden her appeal, but Macron’s bold move suggests a response to the changing political landscape. Macron’s gamble could potentially reverse the far-right trend through higher turnout in legislative elections or the formation of an anti-far-right coalition in Parliament. However, a National Rally victory could lead to a challenging cohabitation deal forcing Macron to appoint far-right figures to key positions.
Macron’s trust in the French people to make the right choice reflects a larger sentiment of preserving democratic values in the face of economic challenges. This message parallels Biden’s warnings about the state of American democracy, emphasizing the importance of voter participation in safeguarding democratic principles. The White House will closely monitor French election results, recognizing the potential impact on broader democratic values and the global political landscape.
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